Season 3 finals preview

With BESL Pro Season 3 finals set to kick off in less than 48 hours, we bring you the event preview that takes a closer look at both semi-final matchups and analyses them throughout the lens of different factors.

The culmination of the €9,000 CS:GO tournament will take place on the 1st of June at Kipsala exhibition center in Riga, Latvia hosted as part of the HyperTown RIX 2019 urban & esports festival.

Will wolsung win back-to-back BESL Pro titles in front of their home crowd?

The winner of the event is not only going to be crowned as the best team in Baltic states, taking home the beautiful BESL Pro Season 3 champions trophy but will also receive the lion share of the prize pool in form of €2,500!

Want to attend the finals? Grab yourself a ticket HERE!

Matches

On the 1st of April, sixteen best Baltic state teams began their journey in the BESL Pro Season 3 competition. For five weeks, teams battled one another in the Swiss group stage in order to find the eight best teams that would advance further into the next stage - the playoffs!

The final two weeks of the regular season saw all the ¼ final matches being played out with the top half of the bracket doing it first, while the bottom half followed suit the week after.

Now, after seven weeks of online play, the competition is transitioning to an offline setting, where on the 1st of June, the four best teams are going to continue playing out the single elimination playoff bracket that began online.

As per usual - all the matches are going to be played out as best-of-three series with all of them being featured on the HyperTown esports stage.

Want to find out a little bit more about the finalists? Check out our “A look at the finalist” article series:

A look at the finalist: WORTEX - an interview with WORTEX’s captain zteeek

A look at the finalist: wolsung - an interview with wolsung’s captain hyskeee

A look at the finalist: FiGURE05 - an interview with FiGURE05’s captain eimaNt

A look at the finalist: 1337HUANIA - an interview with 1337HUANIA’s captain Carcass

Semi-final #1

WORTEX

Player statistics:

Kristjan “shokz” Jakobson - 94 ADR, 1.38 KDR, 16 clutches in 15 games
Erik “DoisTa” Uba - 81 ADR, 1.06 KDR, 4 clutches in 13 games
Marcus “KrassNer” Kangur - 73 ADR, 0.88 KDR, 6 clutches in 13 games
Kevin “zteeek” Rohurand - 71 ADR, 1.00 KDR, 4 clutches in 13 games
Marten “Matup” Padama - 71 ADR, 0.99 KDR, 5 clutches in 13 games

Map statistics:

Train (3-1, 75% winrate)
Inferno (2-1, 66% winrate)
Mirage (1-1, 50% winrate)
Nuke (1-1, 50% winrate)
Overpass (0-1, 0% winrate)
Vertigo (0-1, 0% winrate)
Dust2 (N/A)

wolsung

Player statistics:

Matīss “raw” Rajunčus - 90 ADR, 1.06 KDR, 3 clutches in 4 games
Ilja “Whiskas” Rastopčins - 89 ADR, 1.21 KDR, 2 clutches in 8 games
Aurimas “Bymas” Pipiras - 85 ADR, 1.11 KDR, 7 clutches in 13 games
Reinis “hyskeee” Grīnbergs - 72 ADR, 1.02 KDR, 3 clutches in 8 games
Kristaps “krii” Bricis - N/A

Map statistics:

Mirage (4-0, 100% winrate)
Vertigo (2-0, 100% winrate)
Dust2 (1-0, 100% winrate)
Inferno (0-1, 0% winrate)
Train (N/A)
Overpass (N/A)
Nuke (N/A)

Head-to-Head

These two teams have played against each other once in BESL Pro competitions. Back in Season 2, during week seven of regular season play, wolsung demolished Estonians of WORTEX with a dominant 16:4 scoreline on mirage.

While the caveat here is that they both had different rosters back then, it’s still worth mentioning that the core set of players has stayed the same - hyskeee and krii for wolsung & zteeek and DoisTa for WORTEX.

With a very limited data sample size here, wolsung’s one-sided performance against WORTEX back in Season 2 is enough for us to give them an advantage in the head-to-head department.

Advantage: wolsung

Map pool

Due to the league’s format changing from round-robin to swiss, the amount of games played is different for each team. With that being said, we can no longer compare map pools by just looking at their depth, so we have to dive a bit deeper into the numbers and use other metrics to evaluate one’s map pool.

The inputs:

Maps played: WORTEX - 6; wolsung - 4
Games played: WORTEX - 13; wolsung - 8
Maps with an undefeated record: WORTEX - 0; wolsung - 3
Sum of all map win rates: WORTEX - 241%; wolsung - 300%

The calculations:

First of all, let’s start by debunking the myth that could appear to a naked eye:

“WORTEX have a deeper map pool than wolsung”

This is false! If we take into consideration the number of games that have been played, then actually wolsung are the ones pulling ahead in this metric with 2 games (8/4) per map played, while WORTEX has 2.16 games (13/6) per map that they have played. Of course, this is a very slim margin and technically it doesn’t make any difference whatsoever, but we just wanted to point that out.

Secondly, wolsung boast a lossless record on 75% of the maps that they have played (3/4), while Estonians don’t really have that kind of stability and they have suffered exactly 1 loss on every single map that they have played, resulting in no maps with an undefeated record.

And finally, if we take this a step further and calculate the average win rate per map played then Latvians have an average of 75% (300%/4) win rate on each map that they have played, while WORTEX’s numbers are much lower - only 40% (241%/6) average winrate per map played.

The verdict:

After reviewing results, it’s pretty clear that wolsung take the cake here as they are ahead in every single one of the map pool comparison metrics that we have laid out.

Advantage: wolsung

Possible veto

For the sake of this theoretical veto, we assume that wolsung, being the higher seed here, are going to choose for WORTEX to start the veto.

With that in mind, the first phase ban from WORTEX is pretty obvious. Estonians are surely going to open up the veto by getting rid of Vertigo - a map that they themselves think they have “no chance” on, while their opponents, wolsung, have been picking it as their map of choice whenever they have the chance. On the other hand, wolsung should be playing it smart by taking out Train - a map that is not only the most played/successful map of the Estonian squad but also, a map that Latvians themselves have avoided playing this season.

Coming into the map picks, WORTEX is most likely going to go for the next best thing on their map list - Inferno. Coincidentally, this is also the only map that Latvians have shown weakness on. As for the pick of defending champions - wolsung will surely go for their bread-n-butter in form of Mirage. Having played the map eight times during the time period of two seasons, wolsung is yet to suffer a defeat on it (8-0).

As we approach the second round of bans, this is where things could go multiple ways. The maps that are left in the pool are Nuke, Overpass, and Dust2. Realistically, we could be seeing either one of these maps being played as the 3rd map in the series, but let’s try to reason our way to a prediction.

From the three maps that are now left, we think that the most sense would be made if WORTEX took out Overpass here, as even though Latvians have not played the map this season, historically, they have always been dangerous on it, while Estonians themselves have not had any success on it in the last two seasons (0-2).

At that point, wolsung have to decide between playing to their opponent’s weaknesses or focusing on their own strengths. The first option would mean that they would take out Dust2 in order to end up on Nuke, a map that is far from being WORTEX’s best. However, with all of us knowing how confident wolsung are in their capabilities, we think that they will go with the second option of banning Nuke and playing Dust2 instead.

Dust2 is the perfect third map for this duel! On one hand, we’ve seen WORTEX taking out the likes of 1337HUANIA and XGR eSports on this map. On the other - similarly to Mirage, Dust2 is also one of the maps that Latvians have not been defeated on in the last two seasons (3-0).

In the end, if veto results in these three maps (Inferno, Mirage, and Dust2) as the maps that are going to be played, then we would say that overall wolsung does look like the favorites here in the duel against WORTEX. The thing that gives Latvian side the advantage here is them being heavily favored to win their map pick of Mirage, whereas Estonians winning their map pick (Inferno) and decider (Dust2) is in no way a given.

Advantage: wolsung

Win conditions

WORTEX’s win condition remains the same as it has been every single time when they reach the finals: show up on the big stage with your A+ game! Yes, we’re once again going to ponder on the fact that just playing your A game will not suffice here against a team like wolsung, who are ruthless and will demolish any team that is not ready for their aggressive playstyle. This is where the team’s newest recruit, shokz, comes into the picture as he has to not only play lights out skill wise, but he also needs to ‘click’ with the rest of the team in order to not disrupt the team’s cohesion and overall team play.

As for the guys of wolsung - their biggest win condition is making their sole Lithuanian player, Bymas, feel comfortable playing with a squad full of Latvians. As much as this seems like nothing out of the ordinary, playing and communicating in English, it does have an impact on in-game moments where not being able to talk in your native language might get someone killed or maybe even worse - lose you the round. However, if they do manage to get Bymas all settled in and he frags-out, then others have to follow suit with Whiskas and raw popping heads, krii winning the clutch rounds and hyskeee keeping everyone in check with his leadership.

Predictions

“As we have now learned, wolsung won't be attending the finals event with their original squad and three new players have been brought in to field a completely new roster here. Looking back at Season 2 finals where wolsung came out victorious, a huge factor there was YEKINDAR with his endless confidence plays that helped them score a somewhat easy victory. Well, this time around there is no YEKINDAR on the side of wolsung. Add WORTEX with shokz to the mix and this duel could actually be a pretty close one. Though, WORTEX has never gotten past the semi-finals, despite them being a consistent LAN finalist for three seasons straight. Hopefully, that doesn't hold them back in Riga. All in all - I will give the upper hand to wolsung as they are going to play in front of their home crowd and they have the experience to come through in games like these. My prediction - wolsung 2:1 WORTEX.”

Renārs “Emvy” Dzintars

“With wolsung's core trio being forced to travel to bootcamp in Kyiv a bit earlier than expected, Latvians will have to play with stand-ins at the event and this sets things up nicely for their opponents, WORTEX. Though, we have to keep in mind that WORTEX is also using one stand-in in form of shokz from Lamp. Before receiving this information, I thought that it's a pretty clear path for wolsung into the finals, but now, I'm actually not so sure as missing members on wolsung's side might be a big hit on their executes and communication. This is a slippery slope for wolsung if they suddenly find themselves on the back foot being forced to make a comeback. As for WORTEX - this is the moment where the smallest mistakes will have the biggest consequences. Playing against a mix that has been put together for this event specifically puts you in the position where individual plays from your opponents are your biggest threat and therefore every single corner has to be checked, every single angle has to be expected and so on. All in all - this matchup is going to be full of surprises, I guarantee you that. But, in the end, I think that wolsung will win this one, but not without a fight from the Estonian side. My prediction - wolsung 2:1 WORTEX.”

Renārs “Veneficus” Šēnfelds

“The first semi-final seemed like a one-sided affair with wolsung having an all-star team that had only one goal in their mind - to take the trophy home. However, it looks like that's not going to be the case after all as it has been announced that their pro100 trio is not going to be able to attend the event, thus three other players will have to step in for them to fill the gaps. That changes matters quite a bit despite the fact that things have not looked so great for WORTEX this season as they barely clinched a spot in the playoffs and miraculously won against alltheRAGE. Though, as much as I would love for their Cinderella story to continue here, I think that wolsung will get it done in the end. My prediction - wolsung 2:1 WORTEX.”

Dainius “SirDanny” Daukša

“Coming to the first semi-final, all I can hear is "wolsung are clear favorites despite them having 3 stand-ins" etc. But, if you look at the squad that WORTEX has, you can surely make a case for a potential upset here as this isn't their first BESL Pro finals event. However, it has been a nerve-racking climb to get here for the Estonian squad and during the online play, they've had loads of matches that go to overtime showing a clear problem in closing out games. Nevertheless, I still believe that they have a good tactical background and the tactical aspect of this duel, at least for me, goes in the favor of WORTEX. On the other hand, wolsung has a clear advantage in the teamwork department as I can already tell you that all these players (except for Bymas) have played together on and off for 4-5 years now. Not to mention, all of wolsung players (once again, except for Bymas) have played on the big stage in the past and they know how to deal with the pressure. With all that in mind, the veto will be a huge decider on how this duel goes, because, although wolsung are in theory ready to play any map, WORTEX could be working on a sleeper-pick map that catches Latvians off-guard. Meanwhile, wolsung, being the Latvian FaZe that they are, don't really have any tactical backbone to fall back on, because let's be honest - at a local LAN, anyone can outcall a team that practices only 1 map in a bootcamp. At the end of the day, there are so many what if's in the air for me, so I'll be bald and do something that no other Latvian would ever do - calling a victory for WORTEX here. My prediction - WORTEX 2:1 wolsung.”

Pauls “S1D” Špakovkis

Semi-final #2

1337HUANIA

Player statistics:

Martynas “Butters” Juodagalvis - 82 ADR, 1.01 KDR, 6 clutches in 5 games
Lukas “lukjjE” Baciliunas - 81 ADR, 1.06 KDR, 2 clutches in 5 games
Eimantas “pounh” Lazickas - 79 ADR, 1.05 KDR, 2 clutches in 5 games
Tautvydas “HyPe” Paldavicius - 78 ADR, 1.08 KDR, 5 clutches in 7 games
Robertas “Carcass” Mikuckis - 78 ADR, 1.02 KDR, 5 clutches in 7 games

Map statistics:

Mirage (3-0, 100% winrate)
Inferno (2-0, 100% winrate)
Nuke (1-0, 100% winrate)
Train (0-1, 0% winrate)
Vertigo (N/A)
Dust2 (N/A)
Overpass (N/A)

FiGURE05

Player statistics:

Eimantas “eimaNt” Stabingis - 86 ADR, 1.33 KDR, 4 clutches in 12 games
Justas “sKy” Jonaitis - 84 ADR, 1.16 KDR, 4 clutches in 12 games
Eimantas “Kajic” Stankus - 78 ADR, 1.16 KDR, 3 clutches in 12 games
Mykolas “wave” Budrys - 72 ADR, 0.95 KDR, 4 clutches in 12 games
Jonas “Delection” Mičiulis - 68 ADR, 1.05 KDR, 2 clutches in 12 games

Map statistics:

Train (3-0, 100% winrate)
Inferno (1-0, 100% winrate)
Nuke (1-0, 100% winrate)
Mirage (3-1, 75% winrate)
Overpass (1-1, 50% winrate)
Dust2 (0-1, 0% winrate)
Vertigo (N/A)

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head aspect of this matchup is pretty much a spot on replica of the first semi-final. How spot on? Well, instead of us trying to once again write the same thing in a different way, we could literally copy-paste the same paragraphs we wrote about the first duel, change a couple of names and it would fit just great. Don’t believe us? Watch this!

These two teams have played against each other once in BESL Pro competitions. Back in Season 2, during week five of regular season play, 1337HUANIA demolished Lithuanians of FiGURE05 with a dominant 16:5 scoreline on dust2.

While the caveat here is that they both had different rosters back then, it’s still worth mentioning that the core set of players has stayed the same - Carcass and Butters for 1337HUANIA & eimaNt, Kajic, and wave for FiGURE05.

With a very limited data sample size here, 1337HUANIA’s one-sided performance against FiGURE05 back in Season 2 is enough for us to give them an advantage in the head-to-head department.

Advantage: 1337HUANIA

Map pool

The inputs:

Maps played: 1337HUANIA - 4; FiGURE05 - 6
Games played: 1337HUANIA - 7; FiGURE05 - 12
Maps with undefeated record: 1337HUANIA - 3; FiGURE05 - 3
Sum of all map win rates: 1337HUANIA - 300%; FiGURE05 - 425%

The calculations:

First of all, let’s start by debunking the myth that could appear to a naked eye:

“FiGURE05 have a deeper map pool than 1337HUANIA”

Just like in our first semi-final comparison, this statement is also false in this duel. Once we take the number of games played into consideration, then we see that 1337HUANIA have played 1.75 games (7/4) per map played, while their opponents, FiGURE05, have exactly 2 games (12/6) played per map that they have played. Once again, the margin between these two teams is very small here, but in theory, 1337HUANIA does have a wider map pool than FiGURE05 based on this metric.

Similary to Latvians of wolsung in the first semi-final, 1337HUANIA also has an undefeated record on 75% of the maps that they have played (3/4), while their countrymen of FiGURE05 hold a lossless record on only 50% of the maps that they played on (3/6).

Finally, if we once again take this a step further and calculate the average win rate per map played then 1337HUANIA have an average of 75% (300%/4) win rate on each map that they have played, while FiGURE05 trail by just a few percents with 71% (425%/6) average winrate per map played.

The verdict:

While the results of this duel’s comparison are much closer than the ones we saw in the first semi-final, 1337HUANIA are still, without a doubt, the favorites in the map pool department with having better results in every single one of the metrics.

Advantage: 1337HUANIA

Possible veto

For the sake of this theoretical veto, we assume that 1337HUANIA, being the higher seed here, are going to choose for FiGURE05 to start the veto.

Knowing that FiGURE05 should open things up with a ban of Vertigo as it is the only map that they themselves do not play, while there is no clear evidence of 1337HUANIA doing the same. Basically, we’re calling bluff on eimaNt’s tweet about them wanting to pick Vertigo because it seems very unlikely that an underdog team would try to ‘cheese’ in the most important game of the season rather than playing maps that have gotten them this far. On the other hand, 1337HUANIA is probably going to kick things off with a ban of Train - a map that not only they themselves have struggled on in the past, but a map that is clearly the best of their opponents.

Coming into the map picks, FiGURE05 should play it smart and rather than taking 1337HUANIA’s best map of Mirage as their map pick, they should leave it in the pool as there is a good chance that 1337HUANIA is going to pick it themselves. So instead, FiGURE05 should be using their pick to exploit a weakness in their opponent’s map pool and that weakness is Overpass. As for 1337HUANIA, their choice is probably split between Mirage and Inferno, and quite honestly it doesn’t matter which one they pick here as we’re probably going to see the other one being the decider in the series. But, for the sake of this theoretical veto, let’s assume that they do go for their best map - Mirage.

The maps that are then left in the pool are Inferno, Nuke and Dust2. From these three, FiGURE05 should take out Dust2 as even though 1337HUANIA has not played it this season, historically, they have always performed well on it. 1337HUANIA then should close out the veto with a ban of Nuke, thus leaving Inferno as the last map to be played. However, we can see a world where 1337HUANIA decides to take out Inferno instead and throw a curveball at FiGURE05 by leaving Nuke as the decider.

All in all - the veto of this duel is not as clear-cut as it was for the first semi-final and it could actually end of being completely different to the one we predicted here. But, if it does come down to the trio of maps that we predicted here (Overpass, Mirage, and Inferno/Nuke), then we would say that this is a pretty even matchup with 1337HUANIA slightly pulling ahead, just because of them being more favored to take the decider.

Advantage: 1337HUANIA, by a hair

Win conditions

With 1337HUANIA’s players being so close to each other performance wise in statistics, their win condition for this duel is pretty simple, but, at the same time, very crucial. It’s consistency! All of their players have to bring the same level of performance that they did during the online play, because, up until now, they have worked as a unit with everyone chipping in and doing their part. Now, imagine someone having an off day and not feeling so confident in the server. While it doesn’t sound like much, it only takes for that one player to miss a couple of easy shots on a crucial round in order to give their opponents an opening for a potential upset.

FiGURE05’s win condition is to shift the performance level that they have had this season from online environment to a big offline stage setting. While their opponents, being as experienced as they are at these kind of events, are surely not going to feel any pressure, FiGURE05’s players have to deal with all the outside factors thrown at them. That means, turning a blind eye to the crowd that is cheering and ignoring all the lights that are shining. If they truly want to pull off an upset here, they have to be able to just think about one thing and one thing only - the game that they are playing!

Predictions

“These domestic matchups are always fun and exciting, especially for Lithuanian fans because we are guaranteed to have one Lithuanian team in the Grand Final. On one hand, we have 1337HUANIA - Season 1 champions who had a pretty easy run to get here. On the other - FiGURE05 has finally made it to the finals event and it's their time to shine now. I really hope that eimaNt and Kajic are as good on LAN as they are online, because if they are, then these games are going to be epic! For me, a huge factor here is going to be the element of surprise from FiGURE05 guys as they are the unknown quantity here. I hope that they have studied 1337HUANIA hard, while also working on their own map pool as well. For 1337HUANIA it's pretty simple - just play your own game! It got them the trophy once, might as well do it again. My prediction - 1337HUANIA 2:0 FiGURE05, but I hope to see close maps.”

Renārs “Emvy” Dzintars

“The time has finally come for eimaNt and the boys! Since season two they have fought, observed and learned, and now, in Season 3, them finally reaching the semi-finals should be the biggest motivator for them to put in extra hours in order to show up in Riga with their A game. Seeing how FiGURE05's gameplay and overall sense of how to play out certain situations is coming together very quickly this season, it could mean trouble for 1337HUANIA if they aren't careful enough because they themselves haven't really looked as dominant as they were in the past. Still though, with lukjjE's explosive style and Carcass on the AWP, FiGURE05 is going to have a mountain to climb here. In fact, I would suggest that they use every single advantage that they can get and maybe even go as far as taunting their opponents, because, in a domestic duel like this, everything comes down to getting in your opponent's head. Overall though, 1337HUANIA still has the upper hand in this duel. My prediction - 1337HUANIA 2:0 FiGURE05.”

Renārs “Veneficus” Šēnfelds

“First of all - it's nice to know that there is going to be one Lithuanian team in the grand final, one way or the other. But, on a more serious note, 1337HUANIA are without a doubt the favorites in this duel. Their experience and years of cohesion playing together are the biggest advantages that they have. However, I actually think that the roster that they have assembled this season is possibly the weakest 1337HUANIA iteration that we have seen throughout the three seasons of BESL Pro. As for FiGURE05 - these players have been in the midst of Lithuanian scene for some time now and their core set of players sticking together through thick and thin has finally landed them a spot in the LAN finals. So I wouldn't be surprised if they could snatch a map here, but I still believe that this duel is going to go in favor of 1337HUANIA. My prediction - 1337HUANIA 2:1 FiGURE05.”

Dainius “SirDanny” Daukša

“At first glance, you might say that 1337HUANIA is a clear-cut winner here in this regional matchup, and, quite honestly, I'm not going to be the one saying otherwise. Even though they might not have the best Lithuanian players gathered for this event, they are still BESL Pro finals veterans and the fact that this is FiGURE05's first time getting this far is a very strong argument in favor of guys from 1337HUANIA. I don't really see how the David vs Goliath style match is going to pan out favorably for the underdogs (FiGURE05) here. Yes, of course, we all love some good old counter-strike upset stories, but I don't think that 1337HUANIA is going to let that happen. My prediction - 1337HUANIA quick 2:0 against FiGURE05.”

Pauls “S1D” Špakovkis

During the event, you’ll be able to follow the action LIVE from Kipsala exhibition center in Riga on both of our streaming platform channels - YouTube and Twitch! The preview of the grand final is going to be done LIVE on steam by our analyst desk!